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Title:Identifying Factors That Predict Teen Driver Crashes
Authors:Donald Malchose and Kimberly Vachal
University:North Dakota State University
Publication Date:Apr 2011
Report #:MPC-11-232
Project #:MPC-331
TRID #:01342236
Keywords:crash risk forecasting, fatalities, highway safety, injuries, teenage drivers, traffic crashes



In an attempt to predict these crashes, North Dakota driver licensing data and crash data were used to develop a sample of 20,392 teen drivers age 14 to 17. Within the first year after being licensed, these drivers sustained 317 crashes that resulted in an injury or death. The resulting logistic regression model identifies gender, traffic convictions, rural/urban, geography, and involvement in previous property-damage-only (PDO) crashes as markers that are significant in predicting these injury and fatal crashes. According to the model, living in an urban area increases risk of being in an injury or fatal crash within the first year after attaining a license by 2.5 times compared to drivers who live in rural areas. Drivers involved in a previous PDO crash are 25 times more likely to be involved in an injury or fatal crash than those not involved in a previous PDO crash. These results can be used in a driver improvement program. One application may be an advisory or warning letter targeted to teen drivers suggesting additional training or guidance for those who exhibit the above markers. Hopefully, this letter will alter their behavior and reduce their likelihood of being involved in an injury or fatal crash.

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How to Cite

Malchose, Donald, and Kimberly Vachal. Identifying Factors That Predict Teen Driver Crashes, MPC-11-232. North Dakota State University - Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute, Fargo: Mountain-Plains Consortium, 2011.

NDSU Dept 2880P.O. Box 6050Fargo, ND 58108-6050