Population Projections 2005 to 2025

The projected size and distribution of North Dakota's population varies greatly across groups from 2005 to 2025. The many unique phenomena projected to occur during this time period could be the subject of lengthy debate. Similarly, the data's implications with regard to public policymaking could fill volumes. The purpose of this study is to present the data generated and to leave commentary to future efforts.

In this section, a summary of the data generated by the model is presented. Appendix I includes state-level projections for each of the special populations of seniors, mobility-impaired, enrolled students age 5 to 19, and households without vehicles at five-year intervals from 2005 to 2025. It also includes the projections by age and sex for the same intervals. Appendix II includes this same data for each of North Dakota's 53 counties.

Figures 9 through 13 present projected populations for the years 2005 to 2025. As seen in Figure 9, North Dakota is projected to see a decrease in total population between 2000 and 2005, a relatively steady population for the next period, followed by a period of steady gain for the next 15 years. This change in direction of growth corresponds to the relative plateau of rural county populations reached after 2005 paired with the steady increase of urban county populations with occur throughout the projection periods.

The projected number of seniors in North Dakota from 2005 to 2025 is presented in Figure 10. The number of elderly is projected to increase dramatically over the next 25 years from 94,478 in 2000 to 140,005 in 2025. Given the relatively small projected increase in the total population of the state as seen in Figure 9 the proportion of elderly is projected to increase tremendously.

The projected number of North Dakotans age 5 to 19 enrolled as students is presented in Figure 11. The number of students is projected to decline from its value of 135,053 in 2000 to 103,609 in 2015. Between 2015 and 2025 it is projected to increase by roughly 5,000.

The number of mobility-impaired North Dakotans, presented in Figure 12, is projected to increase significantly over the next 20 years. Given the large percentage of seniors who have one or more go-outside-the-home disabilities and the projected increase in the number of seniors, shown in Figure 10, the behavior is partially explained.

The number of household without vehicles is projected to increase only slightly over the next 25 years from 17,030 to 17,784 as shown in Figure 13.

2010 Projections

The projected changes in North Dakota's population between 2000 and 2010 vary greatly by group. Though the state is projected to lose 4,130 residents during the period, the number of seniors is expected to grow by nearly 5,000. Also significant is the projected loss of 26,838 residents age 5 to 19 that are enrolled in school. The number of households without vehicles is expected to decrease by 20.

Ten counties are projected to experience population growth between 2000 and 2010. This includes Cass, Burleigh, Morton, and Sioux which also experienced net gains in the 1990s. They are joined by Traill and Richland Counties in the Red River Valley, Stutsman in east central North Dakota and Dunn, Billings, and Slope in western North Dakota. Barnes County just west of Cass is only projected to lose four residents.

Divide, Burke, Logan, and Hettinger Counties are expected to lose more than 20 percent of their population in the 10-year period. Grand Forks is projected to have the largest net loss of residents, 3,705.

The projected number of seniors in 2010 is presented in Figure 16 and the projected change in the number of seniors between 2000 and 2010 is in Figure 17. Twenty of North Dakota's 53 counties are projected to see an increase in their senior populations. However 16 of these 20 are expected to see an increase of less than 100 residents aged 65 or older. Cass County is projected to see an increase in its senior population of 1,964; Burleigh County, 1,846.

Figure 18 presents the number of projected mobility-impaired individuals in 2010. The projected change in the number of mobility-impaired individuals between 2000 and 2010 is presented in Figure 19. Roughly half of North Dakota's counties are expected to see an increase in the number of residents with a mobility-challenging disability. Cass and Burleigh counties are expected to see increases of 697 and 497 residents who have such disabilities, the changes in North Dakota's other counties are projected to be significantly smaller.

The projected number of enrolled students age 5 to 19 and the projected change in this population between 2000 and 2010 are presented in Figures 20 and 21. During this period, each of North Dakota's 53 counties is projected to lose enrolled students. The greatest losses are expected to occur in the state's largest counties. Cass, Ward, Burleigh, Grand Forks, Williams, Stark, and Richland counties are projected to lose 1,000 or more residents age 5 to 19 who are enrolled in school. The largest losses, in absolute terms, are expected in Grand Forks, Ward, and Burleigh counties where 4,387, 2,344, and 2,300 fewer students are expected.

The projected number of households without vehicles by county in 2010 is presented in Figure 22. The projected change in the number of households without vehicles by county between 2000 and 2010 is shown in Figure 23. Fifteen counties are projected to see an increase in the number of households that do not have vehicles. However, most counties are projected to see relatively small changes with only Cass and Burleigh counties seeing increases of more than 100 households, while Grand Forks is the only county projected to see a decrease of more than 50.

2025 Projections

The projected direction and magnitude of change in populations between 2000 and 2010 are not, in general, projected to repeat themselves between 2000 and 2025. Though the state is projected to lose roughly 4,000 people between 2000 and 2010 it is expected to gain 22,000 residents during the first quarter of the 21st century. Looking more closely at the county level, the underlying dynamics causing this change are easily identified. Most rural county populations are projected to stay relatively steady between 2010 and 2025 while urban populations are projected to continue to grow. The number of seniors is expected to increase at an increasing rate between 2000 and 2025 from 94,478 to 140,005. The number of enrolled students is expected to level off after a precipitous loss between 2000 and 2010, increasing by only 200 from 2010 to 2025. The number of mobility-impaired residents is expected to increase at a relatively steady rate between 2000 and 2025 from 28,980 to 34,760.

Figures 24 and 25 present the projected total population in 2025 and the projected change in population between 2000 and 2025. Fifteen counties are projected to see an increase in population between 2000 and 2025. Cass and Burleigh counties are both projected to see increases in population of more than 10,000 individuals. Counties in southwest North Dakota are expected to see only slight increases in population. Grand Forks County is projected to lose 4,171 residents; Walsh and Williams counties more than 2,000; and Cavalier, Pembina, McLean, Mercer, Hettinger, Wells, LaMoure, McKenzie, and McIntosh counties more than 1,000.

The projected senior population by county in 2025 and the projected change in senior population between 2000 and 2025 are presented in Figure 26 and Figure 27. Only nine counties are projected to have a decrease in the number of seniors and five of these counties expect to lose more than 100 seniors. The number of seniors is projected to increase most notably in urban counties. Cass is projected to see an increase in 11,259 seniors; Burleigh 8,372; Ward 4,436 and Grand Forks 2,842. Gains of more than 1,000 seniors are also expected in Stark, Williams, and Stutsman counties.

Figures 28 and 29 present the projected number of enrolled students age 5 to 19 in 2025 and the projected change in the same population from 2000 to 2025. All counties but one, Renville County in northwest North Dakota, are expected to see a loss of students between 2000 and 2025. Grand Forks, Ward, Burleigh, Williams, Richland, and Walsh counties are projected to have at least 1,000 fewer students enrolled in 2025 versus 2000.

The projected number of mobility-impaired individuals in 2025 and the projected change in mobility-impaired residents from 2000 to 2025 are presented in Figures 30 and 31. Twenty one counties are projected to see a decrease in the number of mobility-impaired residents. However, only one of these counties, McIntosh, is expected to see a decrease of more than 100 mobility-impaired residents. Relatively significant gains are projected for Ward, Burleigh, Cass and Morton counties.

Figures 32 and 33 present projections of the number of households without vehicles. The former displays projected values for 2025, the latter the projected change between 2000 and 2025. Fifteen counties are projected to see an increase in the number of households that do not have vehicles. However, most counties are projected to see relatively small changes with only Cass, Burleigh, and Morton counties seeing increases of more than 100 households, while Grand Forks is the only county projected to experience a decrease of more than 100.