Current Demographic Profile
An understanding of the current composition of North Dakota's 53 counties serves as a conceptual starting point for projecting populations. Data on total population, migration, births, deaths, and subpopulations are also needed as input for the cohort-component method. In this section data from the 2000 Census on total population, seniors, enrolled students, the disabled, households without vehicles, and minorities are presented. The number of net migrants between the years 1995 and 1999, data which was prepared in conjunction with the 2000 Census, is also included.
Total Population
North Dakota is a predominantly rural state. As can be seen in Figure 1, just over 50 percent of the state's 642,200 residents live outside its four largest counties. Of these four counties, three are classified as metropolitan areas meaning their urban center has 50,000 or more residents. These communities: Fargo-Moorhead, located in Cass County, N.D., and Clay County, Minn., Bismarck, located in Burleigh and Morton Counties, N.D., Grand Forks, located in Grand Forks County, N.D., and Polk County Minn., are the regional economic and cultural hubs of the state. Minot, a community of nearly 40,000 residents in Ward County, plays a similar role for northwest North Dakota.
Figure 1. Population by County, 2000
During the 1990s, all but six of North Dakota's 53 counties lost population as shown by Figure 2. The six counties that saw an increase in population were either home to one of the state's largest cities or Native American reservations. Cass County saw by far the largest gain with an increase of 20,264 people, followed by Burleigh with 9,285. The counties of Rolette and Sioux, homes to the Turtle Mountain and Standing Rock Reservations, have younger populations than most other rural parts of the state, a higher birth rate, and lower migration rate than their neighbors and saw small increases in population in the 1990s. Grand Forks, which lost 4,574, 6.4 percent of its 1990 population, during the decade, suffered from both the realignment of the Grand Forks Air Force Base and the 1997 flood. Divide, Burke, Sheridan, Cavalier, and Hettinger counties lost more than 20 percent of their populations in 1990s.
Figure 2. Population Change by County, 1990-2000
Migration
One of the primary drivers of the change in North Dakota's population is the out-migration of its residents. Though out-migration rates during the last five years of the 1990s were highest for North Dakota residents' age 15 to 30, significant numbers of North Dakotans from all age groups left the state. However, the loss of individuals age 15 to 30 has a greater impact on the state, especially in the long-run, as these are traditional childbearing years.
All but five counties saw negative net migration between 1995 and 1999 as can be seen in Figure 3. Grand Forks County lost 8,107 residents, followed by Ward County with 4,707. Much of the loss in population in Ward County can be attributed to the loss of missions at Minot Air Force Base. Relative to its size, only one county, Cass, saw a sizable positive net migration. Note that these numbers refer to county migration and that, in addition to migration out of the state, there were significant shifts of North Dakota residents within the state's borders.
Figure 3. Net Migration by County, 1995-2000
Seniors
North Dakota has a relatively large senior population compared to the rest of the nation. The number of seniors in North Dakota by county in 2004 is presented in Figure 4. Seniors make up 14.7 percent of the state's population compared to 12.7 percent for the nation as a whole. These individuals are spread relatively uniformly throughout the state, with slightly more seniors residing in rural counties. In the urban counties of Burleigh, Cass, Grand Forks, and Ward seniors make up 12, 10, 10, and 12 percent of the population. More than one-quarter of the rural counties of Burke, Emmons, Griggs, Hettinger, Logan, Nelson, Sheridan, and Wells are seniors.
Figure 4. Senior Population by County, 2000
The Mobility-Impaired
The number of individuals with go-outside-the-home disabilities as identified by the 2000 Census is presented in Figure 5. The largest numbers of mobility-impaired residents can be found in the more populous counties. Note that there is a strong correlation between old age and the presence of disabilities that limit one's ability to live independently. Given that rural areas have relatively larger senior populations than urban ones they can also be expected to have a higher proportion of mobility-impaired residents. In North Dakota counties this relationship holds true.
Figure 5. Mobility-Impaired Population by County, 2000
Students
The number of individuals age 5 to 19 that are enrolled in school in 2000 is presented in Figure 6. Given the large distances and low population densities in rural areas, the challenge facing education providers is great. Statewide, approximately 21 percent of the population is an enrolled student age 5 to 19. There is little variation in this statistic across counties, with the exception of Benson, McKenzie, Mercer, Rolette, and Sioux which all have more than one-quarter of their population in this category. Each of these counties, with the exception of Mercer, have large Native American populations. The counties with the largest numbers of students are Cass, Burleigh, Grand Forks, Ward, Morton, Williams, Stutsman, and Rolette.
Figure 6. Enrolled Student Population Age 5 to 19 by County, 2000
Individuals without Vehicles
The number of households without vehicles in North Dakota is small compared with other parts of the nation, because of the need for mobility in rural areas. Figure 7 presents the number of households without vehicles by county. The counties with the largest numbers of households without vehicles are for the most part highly populated ones where community transportation services may satisfy individual's mobility needs. The rural counties of southwest North Dakota have very few households without vehicles; all Slope County households have vehicles.
Figure 7. Number of Households without Vehicles by County, 2000
Minorities
Figure 8 presents the percent of the total population that is white in each county. The largest minority populations are located in Sioux, Rolette, and Benson counties which are each home to Native American Reservations. Sizeable minority populations are also found in Burleigh, Cass, Grand Forks, and Ward counties. The later two are home to Air Force bases that employ a number of military personnel that are racial minorities.
Figure 8. Percent of Total Population that is White by County, 2000