6. Base Levels of Required Service and Gaps in Existing Systems

The primary purpose of this study is to provide North Dakota state and local policy makers and transportation administrators insights on the current state of personal mobility enjoyed by North Dakota residents and related recommendations to enhance personal mobility. The first five chapters of this report presented background data on the current situation in North Dakota, including an analysis of the demographic factors influencing mobility and an inventory and assessment of existing transportation services. This chapter will identify gaps in existing personal transportation systems and formulate recommendations which, if implemented, will help satisfy many of the unmet mobility needs of state residents.

Chapters 4 and 5, along with the appendices to this report, present a complete picture of North Dakota's existing personal mobility resources. As previously noted, however, the lack of reliable data prevents the development and presentation of an accurate depiction of current conditions and service operations. Consequently, one of the most challenging aspects of this chapter's gap analysis is the formulation of what should be considered the desired level of service that should be available in various portions of the state.

As reported in Chapter 3, one approach that has been used in other states to identify mobility gaps is to compare the household trip rates of households with personal vehicles to trip rates in households without personal vehicles. The difference in travel between households with vehicles and those without is assumed to be the gap in desired vs. actual travel. This approach is based on the assumption that households without vehicles need to make as many trips as those with vehicles.

Such an analysis assumes that the only reason a household without vehicles makes fewer trips than those with vehicles is the availability of vehicles and that persons without vehicles really want or need to make the same number of trips. Such conclusions require many assumptions that may not be supportable. Furthermore such a gap approach assumes that it would be good public policy to attempt to provide transportation comparable to private transportation choices. Because of the inherent flaws with this approach, SURTC researchers chose to take a different approach to estimating personal mobility gaps.

The steering committee spent a significant amount of time wrestling with the issue of how much mobility is needed and the role that government, especially state government, should play in assuring this mobility. The committee recognized that most individuals adequately meet their mobility needs using private vehicles for local transportation and these same vehicles or intercity bus, rail, and air carriers for distant trips. Based on availability, convenience, and cost-effectiveness, even households with access to private vehicles occasionally make use of school bus transportation and other public transportation options.

The committee also recognized that mobility needs varied by geographic area of the state, personal characteristics, and trip purposes. Further, the range of options available to improve mobility varied by region of the state and by trip purpose. Therefore, the committee found it helpful to first list the array of considerations influencing mobility presented in Table 6.1 and then used them to develop the desired levels of mobility.

• Geographic Areas
  • Rural Areas
  • Cities Under 1,000
  • Cities 1,000 - 4,499
  • Cities 4,500 - 20,000
  • Cities Over 20,000
• Demographic Groups
  • Pre-School Children
  • School Children K-8
  • School Children 9-12
  • Adults
  • Disabled
  • Minorities
  • Senior Citizens
• Trip Purposes
  • School
  • Extracurricular
  • Work
  • Shopping
  • Church
  • Social/Recreational
  • Routine Medical
  • Emergency
  • Other
• Service Levels & Quality
  • Availability (Yes or No)
  • Frequency (Days & Times)
  • Reliability
  • Cost
  • Local Only
  • Travel Within Region
  • Intercity/Between Regions
  • Interstate
  • Modal Connections
  • Other
• Available Modes
  • Taxi
  • Fixed Route Bus
  • Public Dial-A-Ride
  • Special Needs Bus
  • Intercity Bus
  • Train
  • Airline Service
  • Car Rental
  • Volunteer Drivers
  • Ambulance
  • Personal Auto
  • Other

Using this list of mobility considerations, a framework for proposing service levels was devised and approved by the steering committee. This framework attempted to specify base levels of public transportation services that should be available in each area of the state for various trip purposes, and for several modes of local transportation. In addition to this matrix, the committee also developed suggested goals for intercity services. Each of these suggested mobility targets is discussed in the next section of this chapter.

6.1 Base Level Transportation

Personal transportation is a means by which people accomplish objectives such as employment, education, health care, and recreation. Except for Sunday drives and cruises, transportation does not confer benefits in its own right. Rather, demand for transportation is considered to be a derived demand. Therefore, when considering goals for personal mobility, the framework within which these goals must be formulated is a much broader one reflecting other social and economic policies.

Public transportation is important because it insures access to jobs, heath care, nutrition, social services, and other activities that maintain or enhance quality of life. Individuals with ready access to private transportation use personal vehicles to achieve mobility; individuals who cannot afford a vehicle or are unable to drive, because of age or disability, are not afforded the same quality of life. Consequently, a statement of the personal mobility goals for North Dakota must be couched in terms of these other objectives.

After much discussion, the steering committee concluded that one over-riding goal of the mobility study should be to recommend ways to make it possible for North Dakotans to live wherever they want in the state and to be able to remain in their home and community for as long as they wish. To make this goal a reality requires that individuals have access to jobs, education, medical services and other community support services via private or public transportation options. Therefore, some form of public transportation needs to be available in all areas of the state so that individuals without access to private vehicles can maintain their residences and still access services.

The steering committee also recognized that the demand for transportation, especially in rural areas, is so sparse that providing desired services would not always be possible. In reality, not all of the transportation services that are desired are affordable, either by individuals or sponsoring governmental agencies. In an attempt to strike a balance between the goal of providing enough mobility to support other societal goals (e.g., allowing a person to live where they choose as long as they are able) and realistic funding limitations which constrain public transportation service expansion, the steering committee agreed on a base service level that affords all areas some form of public transportation and encourages higher levels of service in more densely populated urban areas. Table 6.2 shows the base level service matrix suggested by the steering committee.

The designation of different service levels for three sizes (and densities) of communities recognizes that larger urban areas can support more cost-effective transportation services than rural areas and that some types of service, e.g., fixed-route bus service, are only viable in large, densely populated areas. Likewise, taxi services are only viable if a sufficient population lives within a relatively small geographic area. The most significant differences in the recommended base service levels for the three geographic classifications is that rural areas and cities under 4,500 population are targeted for weekly dial-a-ride services, whereas daily dial-a-ride and taxi services are recommended for cities between 4,500 and 20,000. Cities over 20,000 should have daily fixed-route, dial-a-ride, and taxi services.

The columns in Table 6.2 divide transportation services based on demographic categories that are closely tied to transportation needs. Two categories of youth are recognized, preschool youth that need transportation to Head Start programs and emergency medical transportation, and primary and secondary aged students that may need school bus transportation and emergency transportation. Four categories of adult transportation needs are identified including three categories of individuals that fall into a category of what are considered "transportation disadvantaged" including: senior citizens, low income individuals, and disabled persons. General purpose transportation in the form of dial-a-ride and fixed route bus services are proposed to meet these adult needs.

The levels of service recommended in Table 6.2 are called "base level services" and are far from ideal in terms of providing comprehensive mobility solutions for all individuals. Weekly dial-a-ride services are of little benefit to a rural resident needing transportation to three-times-a-week dialysis treatments or an employee that needs a daily ride to work. Nevertheless, this weekly service can serve as a safety net for some needs such as non-emergency medical appointments or connections to other transportation services.

It should also be noted that the services identified in the grid are primarily government-supported services. Some of these services are supported by state agencies such as the North Dakota Departments of Transportation and Human Services. Other services (commercial, faith-based, etc.) may be required to provide higher levels of service.

Many of the services identified in the goals grid are already being provided in North Dakota. As indicated in Chapter 4, for example, there are 140 ground ambulances services licensed to operate in the state. School transportation services are almost universally available in North Dakota and there are more than 800 entities registered to provide Medicaid-related transportation services. All four of the state's largest cities also already have fixed-route bus systems in place. In some instances, however, services would need to be initiated to provide the levels of services prescribed in the goals grid. Furthermore, not every service identified in the grid would require a free standing service provider. One provider may, for example, be able to provide all the dial-a-ride services required to serve rural areas and small cities in an entire county.

The previous discussion applies to mobility goals for local transportation services. In addition, personal mobility includes access to intercity services such as commercial intercity bus, commercial air service and rail passenger service. Even in more densely populated states than North Dakota, these services are generally available only at population centers so universally accessible intercity services is an unrealistic goal. The steering committee adopted a goal of having intercity services accessible at the state's eight regional hub cities and further that some form of public transportation should be available to connect all areas of the state with these regional services.

As in the case of the local transportation services, the frequency and connections provided by intercity bus, rail, and air service are necessarily limited because most services are provided by for-profit firms and the demand densities present in North Dakota limit the amount of financially self-sustaining service that can be provided. Even in the case of quasi-public rail service, Amtrak's need to control deficits limits the frequency of service that it provides. Level of service information on North Dakota's intercity service providers was presented in Chapter 4. Specific recommendations concerning these services are presented in Chapter 8.

6.2 Gap Analysis

The next step in formulating a personal mobility plan for North Dakota is to compare existing private and public mobility resources to the targeted service levels described earlier in this chapter. The difference between existing and targeted service levels can be considered the gap that needs to be closed to achieve desired levels of personal mobility.

To perform the gap analysis, the inventory information presented in Chapter 4 and the appendices was used to identify whether cities and counties in the state received the base level of service recommended. Service area descriptions included in the profiles were used to determine if a city or county had the suggested level of service. Likewise, inventory information on intercity services as reported in Chapter 4 was used to reach conclusions on regional and intercity mobility levels.

In terms of intercity transportation, all eight of North Dakota's hub cities have surface and air transportation options available for area residents. Seven of the eight hubs have intercity bus service and five hubs have passenger rail service. All eight hubs have scheduled air passenger service.

Unfortunately, the future of all of these services is tenuous. Greyhound's departure from virtually all of its North Dakota market in mid-2004 is reflective of the state of the interstate bus industry. Amtrak is constantly targeted for federal budget cuts which would threaten its route through North Dakota. Similar federal budget cuts could threaten "essential air service" to the communities of Devils Lake, Dickinson, Jamestown, and Williston.

Intercity connectivity is vital to the mobility of North Dakotans. Specific recommendations concerning this connectivity and each of the modes identified in the preceding paragraph are presented in Chapter 8.

Local transportation services such as the weekly and daily dial-a-ride services and fixed-route bus services are theoretically available in accordance with the recommended base level of service based on the designated service areas of the state's public transportation providers. However, the reality of the situation is that many providers limit their services to a few local communities or specific corridors so that many communities and rural residents may not have weekly access to service and residents of small and even larger cities will have only limited destination options.

The community meetings conducted as part of the North Dakota Coordination Study revealed many examples where individuals or human service agency representatives reported transportation needs that were not or could not be met by existing providers. The intent of the coordination plan recommendation to create regional coordinating organizations was to provide local communities with a way to identify and respond to the most pressing of these needs by reconfiguring or expanding existing services.

Since all areas of the state appear to have at least the potential for receiving the base level of service, additional analysis was performed to identify measurable differences in the services as now offered. Table 6.3 presents the results of this analysis.

Table 6.3 lists 25 single county and multi-county service providers along with the four large city transit services. Population, area in square miles, vehicle miles of service provided in 2004, and reported ridership are included for each area. Three service level indicators are then calculated including one-way trips per capita, vehicle miles per square mile and vehicle miles per capita. The first of these indicators reflects the usage of the transit systems; the last two are measures of the amount of service provided.

Compiling Table 6.3 required a number of assumptions about service areas for each of the state's public transit grantees. Also, because ridership and service data are not available for individual counties or cities served by a single operator of multi-county services, it was not possible to tabulate data for individual counties. Further, in cases such as Cass County where several providers operate in overlapping services areas, it was not possible to clearly identify ridership in each area; thus, the statistics for rural Cass County is particularly subject to error.

Despite all these qualifications, the data reveals a number of important characteristics of public transportation in North Dakota. First, the amount of service provided, as measured by vehicle miles per square mile or per capita, varies significantly from area to area. The Golden Valley Transportation System provides more than 11 miles of service per capita as compared to Richland County where residents receive just over one mile of service per resident. As would be expected, the urban systems offer more service per capita or square mile than the rural systems. Care must be taken in interpreting this service level data because the distances involved in trips provided in rural western counties is likely to exceed those in eastern and more densely settled areas so that the miles per capita may just reflect very long rides over sparsely populated areas to reach needed services.

Perhaps the most useful indicator presented in Table 6.3 is the statistic on one-way trips per capita which indicates how much the transit systems were used by their customers. A survey by the Community Transportation Association of America reveals that the average number of trips provided by rural transit systems in areas with service is about two trips per capita. Studies in individual states reflect a similar result. Urban systems average four to five rides per capita.

To help understand the variation in the usage of transit in North Dakota, the 24 rural systems were grouped into four quartiles based on this one-way trips per capita statistic. Note that the ridership rate in the Southwest Transportation Services area is 17 times that of Sargent County and that half of the rural systems provide less than one ride per capita. One might suspect that areas with low ridership might be areas with high vehicle ownership rates. However a comparison with the data presented in Chapter 2 fails to confirm this correlation. A more likely explanation is that in areas with high ridership per capita, the transit systems offer a higher quality and quantity of service with some of the highest ridership-per-capita systems being the most coordinated ones.

The conclusion to be reached when combining the analysis presented in Table 6.3 with the base service matrix is that even though all areas of the state have public transportation services that meet the base level specifications on paper, the actual service provided to residents varies significantly. Further, in many areas of the state the level of service would appear to be lower than national averages and lower than might be possible if additional organizational and financial resources were applied. Specifically, mobility, as measured by one-way trips per capita, would likely increase if the recommendations of the coordination plan were implemented so that more needs would be met by using existing resources more effectively and that services be expanded to offer greater mobility to residents. The final section of this chapter provides some estimates on the cost of increasing levels of service in rural North Dakota to targeted levels.

6.3 Cost and Other Implementation Issues

At this point the obvious question is: What will it cost to close the gap between existing and targeted levels of service? Unfortunately, there is no easy or precise answer to this question and, furthermore, increasing mobility through improved public transportation requires more than money. The remainder of this chapter discusses these implementation issues and offers a range of cost estimates for achieving base levels of service.

As a starting point in the discussion of implementation, it must be recognized that local transportation is not a mandated service by or for any level of government. Whether a community has local public transportation and the quality and quantity of service provided is determined locally. The state and federal government can offer generous matching funds for capital and operating assistance, but the decision to have a service is a local one.

The organizational structure used to manage a system is also a local option. Some transit programs are a part of other human service agencies, some are single-purpose nonprofit corporations, and others are departments of local government or special purpose government agencies. The nature of public transit in a community is as much a function of history and personalities as it is technical analysis or legislation. The wide range of transit services in North Dakota attests to this situation.

The local option for public transportation is the norm around the country and there is little likelihood or need to change this arrangement. Therefore, when formulating a state plan to increase mobility, implementation strategies need to be couched in terms of incentives and support, not mandates.

As indicated above, money is not the only ingredient to a successful public transit system. At least three other factors must be present for a public transportation program to thrive and meet local mobility needs.

The first ingredient to a successful system is a local leader, a mover and shaker who has the vision of what the transit system can become and the skills and connections to make it happen. For an area without transit, this leader must come from the community; for an ongoing system it can be the manager, a board member, or a key contributor to the financial support of the system.

In addition to the leader, a transit system must have a sound technical plan and strong, expert management to implement the plan. A key feature of the North Dakota Coordination Plan recommendations addresses these two requirements by requiring a regional planning effort to identify unmet needs and available capacity and resources. In addition, the coordination study recommended that a skilled coordinator be employed in each region to implement improved service through existing programs or new ones.

The final ingredient for a successful transit system is money, both for capital and operating expenses. The next section of this chapter presents a range of estimates for capital and operating expenses required to achieve base levels of service. Although the performance analysis in Chapter 5 identified substantial unused resources as measured by low mileage utilization of some agencies' vehicles, more funds for driver wages, fuel and maintenance will be required to expand service to targeted levels.

6.4 Operating and Capital Cost Estimates

Meeting the base mobility service levels proposed in this plan will require an expansion of public transportation services, primarily in rural areas. Based on the data presented in Table 6.3, the amount of service offered as measured on a per capita basis, varies greatly around the state. Some areas have very little service while others have daily service to most parts of their service areas. The reasons for these differences include the history and purpose of each system, available funding (especially local matching funds), and the goals of the local community and existing providers. Whatever the history, the goal of this study and the companion coordination study, is to identify ways to increase mobility options available to North Dakotans and to recommend realistic ways to accomplish these changes.

The best way to determine the cost of expanded services that would increase mobility in a particular county or region is to conduct a detailed planning study involving all of the stakeholders in the region, including a technical analysis of demand factors and options to enhance the services of existing providers. The coordination planning effort envisioned in the coordination study would result in such detailed plans. Nevertheless, because the financial requirements of this mobility plan are a necessary element of the final analysis and recommendations, another approach is needed.

Table 6.4 lists the 24 rural service areas (counties or multi-county areas) that were used in the earlier analysis presented in Table 6.3. It restates vehicle miles per capita statistics in ascending order.

This statistic is a measure of the intensity of public transportation service offered in a region adjusted for population. Generally a higher number indicates that more frequent services and greater coverage areas are included in regions with high values. However, a high value might also indicate a very small population that requires very long trips as would be expected in the sparsely populated western part of the state. Nevertheless, very low vehicle miles per capita statistics suggest that many mobility needs are not being met by the existing service and that service expansion may be warranted. Therefore, one way to estimate the service expansion required to meet base mobility needs and then to project the capital and operating expenditures required to achieve this higher service level would be to project increased miles of service for those systems that offer low levels of service.

As can be seen from Table 6.4, the average number of vehicle miles provided per capita in rural areas in 2004 was 4.72, while the range in values was from 1.30 to nearly 50. Fourteen of the 24 systems offer less than 5 vehicle miles of service per capita while six provide more than 7 rides per capita. The systems that provide these high levels of service are generally thought to have well-developed systems that offer a relatively high level of service to their residents. Therefore, a target of 7.0 was selected to represent a high target level service while 5.0 was selected to reflect only a modest service increase, but one that would provide significantly more mobility if the resources were directed towards the most underserved areas.

Table 6.5 presents the results of the operating expense calculations for three levels of service expansion. In each portion of the table, the first column of figures (Column 1) shows the 2004 values for the rural transit systems. Column 2 shows the additional mileage and expenses associated with increasing the number of vehicle miles per capita to the target level for systems that provided less than that in 2004. For example, 14 systems provided less than 5 vehicle miles of service per capita, so the vehicle miles of service for these 14 providers was increased to the 5 level while ones that provided more than 5 vehicle miles of service per capita were left unchanged. A similar approach was taken for the 15 providers that offered less than 6.0 miles of service per capita, and the 18 that provided less than 7 miles per capita.

The 2004 average operating expense for rural providers was approximately $1.70 per vehicle mile so this figure was used to estimate operating expenses. Columns 2 and 3 of Table 6.5 show the increase in miles and expenses and the total miles and expenses while Column 4 shows the percentage increase in these values as compared to 2004 actual data. As Column 4 indicates, total miles operated increase from between 31 and 62 percent while total expenses are estimated to increase from 26 to 51 percent under various service scenarios.

A key implementation issue for this mobility plan is funding. As Table 6.5 indicates, expanding rural services to targeted levels have associated operating fund requirements ranging from $853,983 to $1,720,476 annually. As is the case in virtually all states, a lack of funding is one of the major barriers to expanding rural transit services in North Dakota.

Traditionally, operating expenses are covered by a combination of fares and public support from state, federal and local governments. To provide some indication of how much funding each of these sources might be required to add to implement each of the three expanded service options, Table 6.6 shows the relative shares based on 2004 sharing arrangements. While there is some optimism that federal funding for rural transit will increase substantially, additional state and local funding levels are more difficult to predict. Furthermore, significant increases in Older Americans Act Title III funds, as depicted in Table 6.6, are considered unlikely. More discussion of funding options will be required before any of these service expansion options can be implemented.

In addition to ongoing operating expense increases, service expansion will require additional vehicles. Precise estimates of capital requirements are not possible without detailed system-level operating plans because, as discussed in Chapter 5, many systems seem to have significant excess vehicle capacity (as reflected in the low average annual miles per vehicle reported to the NDDOT). Nevertheless, for purposes of discussion, approximate vehicle requirements were projected assuming average vehicle acquisition costs of $60,000 and 20,000 miles of operation per vehicle per year. Table 6.7 shows the capital expense projections based on these assumptions.

6.5 Conclusion

The gap analysis of the public transportation services available in rural areas of North Dakota suggests opportunities to increase the coverage areas and frequency of service to meet the mobility goals set out in this study. Specific recommendations for how to enhance rural mobility, as well as recommendations for urban and intercity transportation services, are presented in Chapter 8.